Building a Model of the World
Understanding the world is the key to being an effective individual
My father came to America alone as a young adult with no formal education and a basic understanding of the language. He has still never attended any formal schooling and probably couldn't solve an algebra problem that would be considered simple for a middle school student but to this day I consider him one of the smartest people I've ever met. He can cook any type of meal, he's started many successful businesses throughout his life, he's in better shape than anyone I know even in his old age, he never gets sick, and he always seems to be ahead of the curve on sociopolitical issues. He's what we colloquially refer to as street smart but these days the "street smart vs book smart" debate is mostly a false dichotomy used by dumb people to make themselves feel better. What really sets someone like my father apart from most people is his mental model of the world.
Everyone has an internal mental model of the world. It determines how we make sense of everything that happens: the weather, politics, daily interactions, etc. Most people don't consciously think about their mental model they just rely on it to make sense of the world and go through life slowly updating it subconsciously as they gain new experiences.
Bringing your own model of the world into the foreground of your consciousness means you can actively take steps to improve its accuracy and robustness. Having a more accurate mental model of the world than others have could mean you'll be able to spot inefficiencies in markets and profit from them, plan for natural disasters and events, or even get your family out of Poland in 1938 before the war started. It allows you to understand why the world is the way it is today and make predictions for how it will look tomorrow. My father has succeeded in life with no credentials because he's been able to see the world accurately and position himself within it to generate value. Without an accurate understanding of how the world works you can only hope to get lucky. Essentially, an accurate model for how the world works allows you to be an effective agent within it.
Understanding your model
The first thing to realize about building a model of the world is that it's quite literally impossible to build the perfect model. There's simply too many variables to take into account for a perfect model but that's fine! Having a model that lets you understand the world just 80% of the time will still make you an incredibly effective individual. You might be wondering how one could even build a model close to 80% accurate (and I admit I'm pulling that number out of my ass) when there's so many variables to take into account. Samo Burja addresses this issue in his fantastic essay about building a theory of history. The key lies in the power law and understanding that despite and infinite amount of complexity in how the world works you can rely on just a few pieces to understand most it i.e. 10% of variables influence 90% of what happens.
The second thing to realize about improving your model of the world is that it's actually a composition of a bunch of different models all focused on a narrower domain. You have a model for understanding weather patterns and climate and that could influence where you live or how you dress. Like Burja points out, you have a model for understanding history and why certain events in the past happened the way they did and that could influence how you predict the future or explain the present. You have a model for understanding why humans behave the way they do and that could determine how you act in social settings. Keeping these models distinct in your mind is a helpful way to work on improving them all individually but on some level they are all connected and sometimes even nested. For example just like a world model consists of all those models so too will your theory of history model contain models for religion, economics, agriculture, sociology, etc.
Let's revisit the idea of book smart vs street smart. The true nature of the dichotomy is illuminated once you begin to understand the world model as a composition of a bunch of smaller domain models. Someone who would be considered book smart would have a hyper impressive model for a specific domain, usually an academic one, while neglecting to improve the models of other important domains. This is how you end up with physics or math PhD's who don't understand the value of working out or how to scramble an egg. They have a very accurate model for their field but can it really be said that they understand the world if they don't recognize the value of a healthy body or can't effectively feed themselves? By contrast an individual who is street smart is more like my father: no effective model for understanding the complexities of physics or math but he has great models for a large range of other domains in life including history, sociology and human behavior, health & fitness, cooking, etc.
It's worth noting that you can be successful with a narrow world model and being "street smart" isn't necessarily superior to that. In fact one of the best ways to maximize income is to find an extremely valuable domain and then prioritize your skills in that domain above all else. This is what modern economists refer to as specialization. The problem with this approach is that the domains that were valuable 60 years ago may not be as valuable (or even exist) today and if you don't understand the world because you optimized for one specialized skillset then you might miss the warning signs before it's too late. Having broad knowledge across a lot of topics makes you resilient in a rapidly changing world. Plus, I think life is more fun and exciting the more you understand about the world!
Building your model
So how does one improve their internal world model? Find the 10% of variables (domains) that have an outsized effect on the world and learn about them. Here is an incomplete list of places to start:
Learn about Politics to understand the dynamics of power and the actions of rulers
Learn about Economics to understand market forces and incentives
Learn about the History of Nations to understand the cultural evolutions and the importance of warfare
Learn about Sociology to understand human behavior as individuals and groups
Learn about Food & Gut Health to understand the benefits of a vitality and the mind-body connection
Learn about People to build strong relationships and become an effective leader
Learn about Tech to understand efficient systems and increase your personal leverage
Learn about Art & Media to understand the depths of the human soul and the susceptibility of the mind
These are just a couple of broad areas that I believe are valuable when trying to understand the world. For each of them it's useful to learn about their current states but also their histories and how those domains evolved over time. And when trying to learn each one you'll naturally learn about others. For example the history of nations is pretty much a history of politics, economics, and warfare (among other factors). Warfare is a combination of culture, sociology, and technology. Art and media has evolved massively over time and encompasses many different mediums and use cases from the expression of the human condition to influencing the masses. Don’t just stick to these domains; learn about anything that might interest you!
One of the best ways to identify gaps in your understanding is to list out the key players in the world (both humans as well as institutions) and then try to understand their motivations and actions. For example at the time of writing this Russia has recently invaded Ukraine and many pundits and political commentary has revolved around questions of Vladimir Putin’s sanity. It’s true that Putin might be insane but more likely that anyone taking that stance just hasn’t put in the legwork to understand his motivations and view of the world. Even if you disagree morally or rationally with any given key player you should understand that most people and groups act rationally according to their incentives and perceptions of the world. If you cannot assign a rational explanation for the actions of a key player it’s a good indication that you should explore more.
When it comes to actually learning about any of these or other domains there's really no best way. Reading books can be a great way to get high quality information but you could also watch documentaries, listen to podcasts, read blogs, etc. When trying to learn about people a book won't always be much help; it's better to go out and spend time with others! To learn about tech use it! Learn how to code or how to get the most out of Excel. To learn about Art & Media don't just consume it, create it. When you do read my recommendation is that you read the material at the source i.e. instead of reading a summary of Karl Marx or Adam Smith it's more useful to just actually go read what they wrote. Try to read history books from people who lived through the events they describe but also be sure to read about the same historical events from different perspectives.
Understand that you won't become an expert in any of these fields quickly. In fact, you'll most likely never become an expert in any of these fields and that's okay. You can and should still build expertise but don't do it at the expense of all other skills and knowledge. And don't be overwhelmed by all there is to learn. Instead of trying to boil the ocean treat this as a lifelong journey to learn the truths about the world.
Validating your model
A second piece of advice is to start writing. This newsletter/blog is an attempt by me to write about the things I learn about in my quest to create a better internal world model for myself. Forcing myself to sit down and solidify my ideas in writing creates an awesome amount of clarity and exposes gaps in my thinking and knowledge that I wasn't consciously aware of. This could mean that over time my ideas and opinions will change and my earlier writings end up being wrong. I'm okay with that. Embrace being wrong! Use writing as an opportunity to log the current state of your model and make updates when appropriate.
On the topic of being wrong, one of the best ways to gauge the accuracy of your internal model is to make predictions! Predict what you think will happen politically, economically, etc. and tell people! Write it down and tell your friends so you can't just silently be wrong and avoid it. When you're wrong try to figure out why you were wrong: did you not take certain variables into account? Did you overweight or underweight certain factors? Or was it just a random event? Can you draw any lessons from your incorrect prediction? Ultimately our brains are making predictions 24/7 about literally everything but we often times don't even realize it. Bring those predictions to the forefront of your consciousness and log them; it'll help speed up the development of your model.
My last piece of advice before I leave you to go explore the world is to go beyond non-fiction. A good piece of fiction can teach you more about the world than a hundred textbooks ever could. If you don't know where to start, begin with the classics. Some personal favorites that changed the way I see the world are:
Catch-22
Brave New World
Island
The Alchemist
Lord of the Flies
Catcher in the Rye
Don't think just because something is fiction that it cannot be profoundly useful for understanding the world. You would be hard pressed to read the above list and not come away with a new way of looking at things. After all, these books are classics for a reason. The author isn't just telling a story they're trying to tell you something important about the world.
And that's all I have for you today. If you want to follow along as I build my own models of the world be sure to subscribe to the newsletter. Good luck on your journey!